Commercial Property Pricing Pressure (Apr, ’26)

In the release of its April, 2026 Assured Briefing, Assured Research used historical data to show that the current pressures on commercial property pricing are likely to continue throughout 20226 – even if this is a high loss (and high loss ratio year). The reason – commercial property pricing correlates strongly with its rolling 4-year average loss ratio. This observation comports squarely with the typical 3-5 year experience period. And with the current rolling average loss ratio near 20-year lows, even a bad year in 2026 is unlikely to result in a sharp reversal of current (downward) rate trends.